Will 2026 Be the Year US Cannabis Grows Up? Experts Weigh In

With President Donald Trump’s administration renewing its interest in cannabis rescheduling, the plant’s prospects in the US in 2026 appear brighter.

Market sentiment has shifted toward cautious optimism after Trump signed an executive order directing the Department of Justice to expedite the process of rescheduling cannabis from a Schedule I substance to Schedule III earlier this month. However, industry experts and shareholders still seem hesitant to express a positive outlook.

The main driver for rescheduling to take place in 2026 is political necessity, according to Ryan Hunter, chief revenue officer of Spherex.

“The Trump administration is highly incentivized to act as they are facing declining approval ratings among young voters, so I think rescheduling will finally happen,” Hunter said.

A move to a Schedule III substance under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) would reduce federal tax pressure on operators, primarily via 280E relief, he continued. “We hope it will at least be Schedule III, as Schedule II would be a nothingburger,” Hunter said.

Oversupply, Price Compression And Regulatory Risk Loom

Even though Trump’s move has set the stage for 2026, anti-incumbent election results over the past few years at the global level have slowed reforms in places like the U.S. and the Czech Republic while increasing the risk of setbacks in Germany and Australia, Business of Cannabis’ Ben Stevens highlighted.

Furthermore, cheap Canadian supply and telemedicine fueled rapid growth. However, heading into 2026, the market is facing oversupply, falling prices, and rising regulatory risk, Stevens continued.

Harrison Bard, co-founder of Custom Cones USA & DaySavers, explained why 2026 will be both a year of challenges and the year when quality will level up.

“Price compression is real and coming for less mature markets. Newly legalized states are enjoying high prices, but it never lasts — and 2026 will be the year many of them feel that shift.”

Bard emphasized falling prices signal stabilization, instead of collapse.

“As those prices fall, consolidation will accelerate,” Bard said. “Smaller operators will continue to struggle, and in markets that allow it, bigger chains will start to gobble up smaller operators.”

Quality Gains Emerge From Tougher Competitive Landscape

Bard added that falling prices are driving improvements in product quality, as proof of innovation persists despite and during downturns.

“The upside of this tightening environment is higher-quality products,” Bard noted. “As price comes down, brands are able to make better products for less, which is ultimately a win for consumers.”

Ali Garawi, CEO and co-founder at Muha Meds, said vertical control, operational efficiency, and consumer trust are taking precedence over hype-driven growth in the industry.

“Brands that relied on hype, licensing, or third-party production struggled, while vertically integrated companies that focused on quality, efficiency, and cultural connection gained ground,” Garawi explained. “As we enter 2026, the brands that win will be the ones that simplify the experience for consumers while elevating quality and trust.”

Garawi emphasized consumers are looking for transparency, clean ingredients, and products designed for specific needs like sleep, recovery, or creativity, rather than just high THC levels.

Hemp-Cannabis Regulatory Divide Begins To Close?

In the meantime, the regulatory divide between hemp and cannabis is shrinking, with the hemp ban conversation having the potential to reshape the market.

“States are already reconsidering the loopholes that allowed intoxicating hemp products to scale without the same regulatory oversight as licensed cannabis,” Garawi continued. “In 2026, we’ll likely see either tighter restrictions or a harmonized regulatory structure that treats intoxicating hemp and cannabis more consistently.”

Sasha Nutgent, vice president of Cannabis Retail at Housing Works Cannabis Co, said treating cannabis like disciplined retail will allow operators to stay competitive.

“It is important for operators, especially those in New York, to navigate oversaturated markets, run lean, and focus on the customer experience,” Nutgent said. “The dispensaries that will succeed are the ones treating cannabis like standard retail, using data and tight operations to guide every decision.”