Cannabis Insiders Say Federal Reform Is a Tailwind, Not a Lifeline

Cannabis operators may need to rethink how quickly federal reform will translate into tangible change in the marketplace. Momentum in Washington is unmistakable, but industry insiders stressed that rescheduling, banking changes, and hemp rule updates should be viewed as long‑term tailwinds rather than immediate lifelines for businesses under pressure. That was the central message during a panel discussion at the Ignite New Jersey Market Spotlight in Jersey City on February 10.

The “Washington Watch: Cannabis Policy and Market Signals” session brought together Jeff Guillot, CEO of Guillot Consulting; Vince Ning, co‑founder and CEO of wholesale cannabis platform Nabis; and Steve Ernest, head of originations at Chicago Atlantic.

Ning, who tracks federal cannabis policy closely, told the audience of regulators, operators, and other industry insiders that the federal agenda has largely coalesced around four themes: rescheduling, SAFE Banking, the treatment of hemp and cannabis, and interstate commerce.

“The four main topics of sort of policy issues that were discussed were one, obviously rescheduling,” said Ning. “The next sort of hot topic is safe banking… And following that, there is this sort of underpinning of what’s going to happen with hemp and cannabis… And then lastly is interstate commerce. So those are the four big topics right now on the Hill, particularly under the executive branch and congressionally as well.”

He said regulators are increasingly shifting from a plant‑based framework to a molecule‑based one.

“Regulation is moving from sort of plant‑centric regulation to cannabinoid centric regulation,” Ning noted. “So THC is still THC, whether it comes from hemp or cannabis or any other plant we might discover on earth or elsewhere,” adding, “people are talking about regulating the chemical compound now, less so the actual plant itself.”

That shift could reshape how licensed operators are regulated and how hemp‑derived products fit into the federal landscape.

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Public Opinion Primed for Progress

Politically, the panel said the public is already there. Guillot pointed to recent Pew data showing overwhelming support.

“The last Pew Research — 83% favor. We’re getting there. It’s 83%,” he said.

Ernest noted that those numbers change the tone in legislative offices.

“When… any politician looks at these numbers, they’re like, ‘Okay… now I think there’s a willingness to want to find a way to make it work,’” he said. “And you talk about jobs, and you talk about taxes, and they’re like, ‘Okay, let’s move the needle in this thing.’”

Guillot said framing is especially important with Republicans and other conservative members of Congress.

“Framing this around economic development and job creation has never gotten us laughed out of a room,” he said. “The vast majority of elected conservatives and Republicans that we’ve spoken to over the years behind closed doors don’t believe a lot of the rhetoric that you’d be hearing in campaigns… It’s just a matter of framing this correctly.”

Despite the growing alignment of policy, markets, and public opinion, the panelists warned that operators should not expect dramatic change from immediate federal action. Ernest was blunt about what actually matters in the current environment.

“The message to operators: focus on your business, focus on what you can control, focus on producing free cash flow… and increasing your EBITDA margins,” he said. “None of this is going to come and save us in the near term. It’s just a slow, directional tailwind that’s going to help, but fundamentals will not change.”

For companies that have been waiting years for Washington to act, that reality check may feel sobering. But as the discussion in Jersey City made clear, the businesses most likely to benefit from federal reform are the ones operating as if no rescue is coming and building for the day when those tailwinds finally arrive.